Will CS Cristal win on 2026-11-02?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2

Yes78¢No22¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$5.96

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 77.5¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,290

Combined PnL-$12.66

No4 traders

Total Value$155.92

Total Shares698

Combined PnL+$6.69

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816	Yesavg 79¢	$1.0K	$987.34	-$12.66	70% 344-145 (489)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 21¢	$64.68	$120.12	+$5.71	51% 17602-16613 (34215)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$26.01	$27.25	+$1.24	49% 13477-14173 (27650)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$19.04	$19.04	+$0	44% 6422-8027 (14449)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 22.8¢	$6.85	$6.3	-$0.4	52% 7634-6911 (14545)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$2.1	$2.25	+$0.15	58% 43585-31701 (75286)

0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$987.34

PnL

-$12.66

Record

70%

344-145 (489)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$64.68

Value

$120.12

PnL

+$5.71

Record

51%

17602-16613 (34215)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$26.01

Value

$27.25

PnL

+$1.24

Record

49%

13477-14173 (27650)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.04

Value

$19.04

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

6422-8027 (14449)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$6.85

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$0.4

Record

52%

7634-6911 (14545)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

43585-31701 (75286)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.