Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-11-08?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 49¢ · $60 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$59.97
$3.76
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.2¢ | $22.14 | $23.87 | +$1.72 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 46.6¢ | $15.09 | $15.35 | +$0.26 | 52% 9022-8174 (17196) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $8.53 | $9.64 | +$1.11 | 53% 2714-2387 (5101) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $5.85 | $5.91 | +$0.06 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $4.6 | $5.2 | +$0.6 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
Invested
$22.14
Value
$23.87
PnL
+$1.72
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$15.09
Value
$15.35
PnL
+$0.26
Record
52%
9022-8174 (17196)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$8.53
Value
$9.64
PnL
+$1.11
Record
53%
2714-2387 (5101)
Invested
$5.85
Value
$5.91
PnL
+$0.06
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$4.6
Value
$5.2
PnL
+$0.6
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.