Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will CD Garcilaso win on 2026-11-08?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 41¢ · $196 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$196.3
$5.11
38.6¢ → 40.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 38.5¢ | $105.15 | $110.68 | +$5.52 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 62.6¢ | $55.84 | $54.64 | -$1.19 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 38.8¢ | $11.65 | $11.85 | +$0.2 | 52% 9497-8605 (18102) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $10 | $9.87 | -$0.13 | 53% 2982-2598 (5580) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $8.5 | $5 | +$0.6 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $4.15 | $4.26 | +$0.11 | 50% 23449-23463 (46912) |
Invested
$105.15
Value
$110.68
PnL
+$5.52
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$55.84
Value
$54.64
PnL
-$1.19
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
Invested
$11.65
Value
$11.85
PnL
+$0.2
Record
52%
9497-8605 (18102)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$9.87
PnL
-$0.13
Record
53%
2982-2598 (5580)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$8.5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.6
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$4.26
PnL
+$0.11
Record
50%
23449-23463 (46912)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.