Will Sport Boys Association win on 2026-11-15?

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$76.4

Smart Money Entry

86.3¢ → 97.8¢

+13% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,284

Combined PnL+$106.53

Yes6 traders

Total Value$37.35

Total Shares373

Combined PnL-$30.13

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
alpheclabs2	Noavg 87.5¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$54.78	45% 373-460 (833)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 91.7¢	$249.19	$237.15	-$12.04	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
GA Gaditima	Noavg 81.5¢	$166.43	$183.43	+$17	49% 400-411 (811)
LI Limousin	Noavg 78.6¢	$161.75	$181.16	+$19.41	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 88¢	$161.74	$165.41	+$3.68	41% 744-1054 (1798)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 82¢	$70.04	$63.05	+$7.01	38% 500-824 (1324)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 79.1¢	$56.68	$63.03	+$6.35	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 78.8¢	$45.73	$51.07	+$5.34	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$33.15	$36	+$2.85	46% 486-574 (1060)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.9¢	$52.4	$25.07	-$27.33	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 76¢	$8.36	$9.68	+$1.32	36% 649-1179 (1828)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 84¢	$5.27	$5.65	+$0.38	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 80.2¢	$4.76	$5.23	+$0.47	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$3.03	$3.03	+$0	48% 1314-1407 (2721)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$4.33	$2.85	+$0.05	66% 786-413 (1199)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.8¢	$5.2	$2.5	-$2.7	43% 867-1151 (2018)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$21.8	$2.4	+$0.6	46% 888-1048 (1936)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$2.25	$1.5	-$0.75	49% 4712-4983 (9695)

alpheclabs2

Invested

$1,941.08

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$54.78

Record

45%

373-460 (833)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$249.19

Value

$237.15

PnL

-$12.04

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

Gaditima

Invested

$166.43

Value

$183.43

PnL

+$17

Record

49%

400-411 (811)

Limousin

Invested

$161.75

Value

$181.16

PnL

+$19.41

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$161.74

Value

$165.41

PnL

+$3.68

Record

41%

744-1054 (1798)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$70.04

Value

$63.05

PnL

+$7.01

Record

38%

500-824 (1324)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$56.68

Value

$63.03

PnL

+$6.35

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$45.73

Value

$51.07

PnL

+$5.34

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$33.15

Value

$36

PnL

+$2.85

Record

46%

486-574 (1060)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.4

Value

$25.07

PnL

-$27.33

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$8.36

Value

$9.68

PnL

+$1.32

Record

36%

649-1179 (1828)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$5.27

Value

$5.65

PnL

+$0.38

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

suntori<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$5.23

PnL

+$0.47

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.03

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1314-1407 (2721)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.33

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.05

Record

66%

786-413 (1199)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.2

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$2.7

Record

43%

867-1151 (2018)

smithagentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.8

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.6

Record

46%

888-1048 (1936)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.25

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.75

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.