Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

CD Comerciantes Unidos leading at halftime?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 47¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$0.56

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 47¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,474

Combined PnL+$37.61

No4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,345

Combined PnL-$38.17

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 45.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$32.91	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 54.7¢	$732.47	$727.1	-$5.37	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
└ No leg	Noavg 54.7¢	$541.11	$534.25	-$6.86
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.6¢	$191.36	$192.85	+$1.49
MA MadridTime	Noavg 54.3¢	$437.89	$427.57	-$10.32	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
VE Venusian	Noavg 54.9¢	$400.23	$386.17	-$14.06	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
LI Limousin	Noavg 56.5¢	$281.45	$268.23	-$13.22	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
SE sentrioCTR	Yesavg 45.6¢	$185.69	$187.48	+$1.79	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 53.2¢	$165.34	$164.77	-$0.58	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 43.4¢	$70.79	$74.98	+$4.19	56% 649-514 (1163)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 46.8¢	$47.43	$47.62	+$0.2	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 46.9¢	$38.91	$38.17	-$0.74	42% 547-747 (1294)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 46.9¢	$38.91	$38.17	-$0.74	59% 3948-2729 (6677)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,206.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$32.91

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$732.47

Value

$727.1

PnL

-$5.37

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

Both legs:

No$541.1154.7¢-$6.86

Yes$191.3645.6¢+$1.49

MadridTime

Invested

$437.89

Value

$427.57

PnL

-$10.32

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

Venusian

Invested

$400.23

Value

$386.17

PnL

-$14.06

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

Limousin

Invested

$281.45

Value

$268.23

PnL

-$13.22

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

sentrioCTR

Yes

Invested

$185.69

Value

$187.48

PnL

+$1.79

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

LightParadox

Invested

$165.34

Value

$164.77

PnL

-$0.58

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.79

Value

$74.98

PnL

+$4.19

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.43

Value

$47.62

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.91

Value

$38.17

PnL

-$0.74

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.91

Value

$38.17

PnL

-$0.74

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.