Sport Boys Association leading at halftime?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 86¢ · $922 held · ends Nov 15

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$922.02

Combined PnL

-$75.75

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 86¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$606.02

Total Shares706

Combined PnL+$11.04

Yes6 traders

Total Value$196.82

Total Shares1,406

Combined PnL-$86.8

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 84.4¢	$183.24	$186.71	+$3.46	58% 872-632 (1504)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354	Noavg 84.2¢	$143.14	$146.24	+$3.1	60% 888-604 (1492)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 83.7¢	$120.45	$119.18	-$1.27	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
└ No leg	Noavg 83.7¢	$84.36	$86.66	+$2.29
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.5¢	$36.09	$32.53	-$3.56
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 85.6¢	$108	$108.53	+$0.53	50% 932-930 (1862)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 15.7¢	$118.15	$105.69	-$12.47	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 85¢	$58.51	$59.19	+$0.68	57% 851-641 (1492)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 81¢	$53.09	$55.71	+$2.62	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yesavg 33.3¢	$173.66	$36.82	-$69.5	51% 1659-1609 (3268)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$29.12	$26.37	-$2.75	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 85.2¢	$22.58	$22.65	+$0.07	49% 868-890 (1758)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 85¢	$16.52	$16.71	+$0.19	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$14.57	$13.6	-$0.97	42% 548-748 (1296)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.9¢	$13.45	$12.6	-$0.85	59% 3950-2729 (6679)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 81¢	$5.73	$6.02	+$0.28	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 83¢	$4.15	$4.25	+$0.1	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$2	$1.75	-$0.25	48% 2555-2763 (5318)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$183.24

Value

$186.71

PnL

+$3.46

Record

58%

872-632 (1504)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354

Invested

$143.14

Value

$146.24

PnL

+$3.1

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$120.45

Value

$119.18

PnL

-$1.27

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

Both legs:

No$84.3683.7¢+$2.29

Yes$36.0915.5¢-$3.56

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$108

Value

$108.53

PnL

+$0.53

Record

50%

932-930 (1862)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$118.15

Value

$105.69

PnL

-$12.47

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$58.51

Value

$59.19

PnL

+$0.68

Record

57%

851-641 (1492)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$53.09

Value

$55.71

PnL

+$2.62

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$173.66

Value

$36.82

PnL

-$69.5

Record

51%

1659-1609 (3268)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.12

Value

$26.37

PnL

-$2.75

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$22.58

Value

$22.65

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

868-890 (1758)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$16.52

Value

$16.71

PnL

+$0.19

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.57

Value

$13.6

PnL

-$0.97

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.45

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$0.85

Record

59%

3950-2729 (6679)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$5.73

Value

$6.02

PnL

+$0.28

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.1

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.