Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (82%). 7 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. Sport Boys Association end in a draw?

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (41%) · No at 18¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Yes82¢No18¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 41%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$8.61

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 18¢

-79% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes82%

No18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,161

Combined PnL-$134.94

Yes10 traders

Total Value$537.11

Total Shares1,347

Combined PnL+$126.34

No — 41%Yes — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lonmi2511CTR	Noavg 87¢	$963.09	$974.16	+$11.07	59% 751-515 (1266)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 79¢	$632.93	$713.05	+$80.12	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 87.2¢	$712.58	$482.72	-$227.8	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
alpheclabs2CTR	Noavg 86¢	$281.34	$287.89	+$6.54	45% 373-460 (833)
LI Limousin	Yesavg 21¢	$125.1	$223.39	+$98.29	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 51¢	$234.8	$197.9	-$36.9	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.6¢	$60.95	$107.6	+$46.64
└ No leg	Noavg 51¢	$173.85	$90.31	-$83.54
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Noavg 87¢	$87	$88	+$1	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
GA Gaditima<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$79.55	$82.86	+$3.31	49% 400-411 (811)
dips.<$100	Yesavg 63.6¢	$58.5	$67.62	+$9.12	48% 1314-1407 (2721)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$58.5	$66.15	+$7.65	66% 786-413 (1199)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$45.14	$45.14	-$0	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
LR lryyy<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$29.92	$35.2	+$5.28	46% 998-1194 (2192)
SM smithagent<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$6.6	$7.46	+$0.86	46% 888-1048 (1936)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 84¢	$6	$5.07	-$0.93	41% 744-1054 (1798)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$2.65	$5	+$2.35	46% 486-574 (1060)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 66.7¢	$7.82	$2.87	-$4.95	35% 485-917 (1402)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$2.75	$2.31	-$0.44	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$2.07	$1.97	-$0.09	41% 1195-1702 (2897)

lonmi2511CTR

Invested

$963.09

Value

$974.16

PnL

+$11.07

Record

59%

751-515 (1266)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$632.93

Value

$713.05

PnL

+$80.12

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$712.58

Value

$482.72

PnL

-$227.8

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

alpheclabs2CTR

Invested

$281.34

Value

$287.89

PnL

+$6.54

Record

45%

373-460 (833)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$125.1

Value

$223.39

PnL

+$98.29

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$234.8

Value

$197.9

PnL

-$36.9

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

Both legs:

Yes$60.9541.6¢+$46.64

No$173.8551¢-$83.54

NotJumpCTR<$100

Invested

$87

Value

$88

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Gaditima<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.55

Value

$82.86

PnL

+$3.31

Record

49%

400-411 (811)

dips.<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.5

Value

$67.62

PnL

+$9.12

Record

48%

1314-1407 (2721)

suitcase6628<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.5

Value

$66.15

PnL

+$7.65

Record

66%

786-413 (1199)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.14

Value

$45.14

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

lryyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.92

Value

$35.2

PnL

+$5.28

Record

46%

998-1194 (2192)

smithagent<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.6

Value

$7.46

PnL

+$0.86

Record

46%

888-1048 (1936)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$0.93

Record

41%

744-1054 (1798)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.65

Value

PnL

+$2.35

Record

46%

486-574 (1060)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$7.82

Value

$2.87

PnL

-$4.95

Record

35%

485-917 (1402)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$0.44

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$0.09

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.8%

18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$405.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

505.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.