Will CD Comerciantes Unidos win on 2026-11-15?

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 87¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Yes87¢No13¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$96.73

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 86.5¢

+31% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,976

Combined PnL+$20.76

No9 traders

Total Value$604.8

Total Shares2,169

Combined PnL-$117.49

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Yesavg 59¢	$822.05	$864.13	+$42.08	35% 485-917 (1402)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 68.1¢	$574.42	$569.23	-$5.19	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 64¢	$539.16	$537.9	-$1.26	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Yesavg 77.1¢	$341.73	$383.26	+$41.52	41% 744-1054 (1798)
SM smithagent	Yesavg 76.9¢	$381.66	$300.37	-$59.87	46% 888-1048 (1936)
dips.CTR	Noavg 22.8¢	$157.89	$214.54	+$61.04	48% 1314-1407 (2721)
alpheclabs2CTR	Noavg 33¢	$258.47	$164.26	+$3.88	45% 373-460 (833)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 36¢	$248.67	$93.25	-$155.42	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
GA Gaditima<$100	Yesavg 61.2¢	$70.08	$73.23	+$3.15	49% 400-411 (811)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$40.07	$46.53	+$6.46	49% 1349-1428 (2777)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Noavg 20.1¢	$418.73	$38.22	+$18.57	66% 786-413 (1199)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$79.05	$29.64	-$49.41	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 46.7¢	$14	$10.8	-$3.2	43% 867-1151 (2018)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$3.8	$4.13	+$0.33	17% 62-300 (362)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$3.63	$3.96	+$0.33	46% 998-1194 (2192)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 33.5¢	$3.35	$3.6	+$0.25	46% 486-574 (1060)

tradecraft

Yes

Invested

$822.05

Value

$864.13

PnL

+$42.08

Record

35%

485-917 (1402)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$574.42

Value

$569.23

PnL

-$5.19

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$539.16

Value

$537.9

PnL

-$1.26

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Yes

Invested

$341.73

Value

$383.26

PnL

+$41.52

Record

41%

744-1054 (1798)

smithagent

Yes

Invested

$381.66

Value

$300.37

PnL

-$59.87

Record

46%

888-1048 (1936)

dips.CTR

Invested

$157.89

Value

$214.54

PnL

+$61.04

Record

48%

1314-1407 (2721)

alpheclabs2CTR

Invested

$258.47

Value

$164.26

PnL

+$3.88

Record

45%

373-460 (833)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$248.67

Value

$93.25

PnL

-$155.42

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

Gaditima<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.08

Value

$73.23

PnL

+$3.15

Record

49%

400-411 (811)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$40.07

Value

$46.53

PnL

+$6.46

Record

49%

1349-1428 (2777)

suitcase6628CTR

Invested

$418.73

Value

$38.22

PnL

+$18.57

Record

66%

786-413 (1199)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$79.05

Value

$29.64

PnL

-$49.41

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$14

Value

$10.8

PnL

-$3.2

Record

43%

867-1151 (2018)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.33

Record

17%

62-300 (362)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$3.63

Value

$3.96

PnL

+$0.33

Record

46%

998-1194 (2192)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.25

Record

46%

486-574 (1060)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.