Will AD Tarma win on 2026-11-03?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 77¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
2 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$2.22
74.2¢ → 77¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 26.5¢ | $485.51 | $462.44 | -$15.82 | 51% 23396-22163 (45559) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.5¢ | $273.81 | $247.84 | -$25.97 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73¢ | $211.7 | $214.6 | +$10.15 | |
SA Saber-greed | Noavg 74¢ | $403.65 | $403.7 | +$2.78 | 59% 2588-1813 (4401) |
BA BayupatiARB<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $348.42 | $334.95 | -$6.63 | 50% 249-252 (501) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75¢ | $258.17 | $254.73 | +$1.72 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27¢ | $90.25 | $80.22 | -$8.36 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $52.7 | $48.93 | -$3.77 | 50% 27272-27188 (54460) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $41.8 | $40.7 | -$0.83 | 56% 935-734 (1669) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $8.75 | $8.4 | -$0.17 | 54% 901-783 (1684) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $2.55 | $2.4 | -$0.2 | 52% 8449-7707 (16156) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $1.2 | -$0.03 | 53% 913-807 (1720) |
Invested
$485.51
Value
$462.44
PnL
-$15.82
Record
51%
23396-22163 (45559)
Both legs:
Invested
$403.65
Value
$403.7
PnL
+$2.78
Record
59%
2588-1813 (4401)
Invested
$348.42
Value
$334.95
PnL
-$6.63
Record
50%
249-252 (501)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.7
Value
$48.93
PnL
-$3.77
Record
50%
27272-27188 (54460)
Invested
$41.8
Value
$40.7
PnL
-$0.83
Record
56%
935-734 (1669)
Invested
$8.75
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$0.17
Record
54%
901-783 (1684)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.2
Record
52%
8449-7707 (16156)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.2
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
913-807 (1720)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.