Will CD Garcilaso win on 2026-11-15?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 84¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$303.4

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 84¢

+18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,428

Combined PnL+$325.82

Yes5 traders

Total Value$82.99

Total Shares441

Combined PnL-$22.42

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL glennyorkshire	Noavg 75.7¢	$970.14	$1.0K	+$55.5	47% 236-261 (497)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 68¢	$563.13	$670.79	+$107.66	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
LI Limousin	Noavg 69¢	$526.54	$618.11	+$91.57	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 24.7¢	$299.41	$225.64	-$73.77	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.7¢	$229.31	$148.46	-$80.85
└ No leg	Noavg 76.3¢	$70.09	$77.17	+$7.08
NM NM-P	Noavg 68¢	$155.45	$185.17	+$29.72	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
GC GC-P	Noavg 68¢	$154.88	$184.49	+$29.61	43% 577-770 (1347)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 69¢	$67.64	$79.4	+$11.76	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$82.16	$67.87	-$14.29	49% 408-422 (830)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$8.33	$6.33	-$2	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.4¢	$11.87	$4.64	-$2.31	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$6.21	$3.19	-$3.02	47% 676-773 (1449)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$1.75	$0.95	-$0.8	43% 875-1153 (2028)

glennyorkshire

Invested

$970.14

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$55.5

Record

47%

236-261 (497)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$563.13

Value

$670.79

PnL

+$107.66

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

Limousin

Invested

$526.54

Value

$618.11

PnL

+$91.57

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$299.41

Value

$225.64

PnL

-$73.77

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Both legs:

Yes$229.3124.7¢-$80.85

No$70.0976.3¢+$7.08

NM-P

Invested

$155.45

Value

$185.17

PnL

+$29.72

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

GC-P

Invested

$154.88

Value

$184.49

PnL

+$29.61

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$67.64

Value

$79.4

PnL

+$11.76

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.16

Value

$67.87

PnL

-$14.29

Record

49%

408-422 (830)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.33

Value

$6.33

PnL

-$2

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.87

Value

$4.64

PnL

-$2.31

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.21

Value

$3.19

PnL

-$3.02

Record

47%

676-773 (1449)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.75

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.8

Record

43%

875-1153 (2028)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.