Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will ADC Juan Pablo II College win on 2026-11-15?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 41¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$37.31

Smart Money Entry

41.6¢ → 40.5¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,837

Combined PnL-$36.86

No1 trader

Total Value$8.7

Total Shares15

Combined PnL-$0.45

Yes — 90%No — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 41.6¢	$502.5	$489.24	-$13.26	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 42¢	$452.72	$433.15	-$19.57	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Yesavg 40.9¢	$102.09	$101.13	-$0.97	56% 672-523 (1195)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 42.5¢	$76.39	$71.9	-$4.49	41% 1195-1702 (2897)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$39.42	$39.91	+$0.49	43% 561-753 (1314)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$39.42	$39.91	+$0.49	59% 3960-2731 (6691)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 61¢	$9.15	$8.7	-$0.45	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$14.54	$4.05	+$0.37	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$3.7	$3.74	+$0.05	35% 485-917 (1402)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$2	$2.03	+$0.03	43% 867-1151 (2018)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$502.5

Value

$489.24

PnL

-$13.26

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$452.72

Value

$433.15

PnL

-$19.57

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Yes

Invested

$102.09

Value

$101.13

PnL

-$0.97

Record

56%

672-523 (1195)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.39

Value

$71.9

PnL

-$4.49

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.42

Value

$39.91

PnL

+$0.49

Record

43%

561-753 (1314)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.42

Value

$39.91

PnL

+$0.49

Record

59%

3960-2731 (6691)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$9.15

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$0.45

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.54

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.37

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$0.05

Record

35%

485-917 (1402)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

43%

867-1151 (2018)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.