Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

AD Tarma vs. CD Moquegua: O/U 2.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$109.03

Smart Money Entry

38.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$774.27

Total Shares2,328

Combined PnL-$116.64

Under6 traders

Total Value$799.85

Total Shares1,060

Combined PnL+$7.61

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Overavg 49¢	$729.83	$630.64	-$99.19	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 87.4¢	$544.8	$520.69	-$24.11	72% 2282-870 (3152)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 21.6¢	$164.25	$125.29	-$38.96	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Underavg 59.5¢	$84.7	$99.7	+$15	47% 4449-4923 (9372)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 53¢	$70.8	$76.62	+$5.82	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 55¢	$68.93	$74.54	+$5.61	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 40.1¢	$20.68	$25.76	+$5.08	60% 9374-6357 (15731)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 17.4¢	$15.32	$14.52	-$0.8	50% 12109-12317 (24426)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.34	$2.55	+$0.2	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.5	-$0.25	47% 2054-2350 (4404)
bernardi22CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$100	$1.32	+$22.56	56% 1231-954 (2185)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$729.83

Value

$630.64

PnL

-$99.19

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$544.8

Value

$520.69

PnL

-$24.11

Record

72%

2282-870 (3152)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$164.25

Value

$125.29

PnL

-$38.96

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Under

Invested

$84.7

Value

$99.7

PnL

+$15

Record

47%

4449-4923 (9372)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$70.8

Value

$76.62

PnL

+$5.82

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$68.93

Value

$74.54

PnL

+$5.61

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$20.68

Value

$25.76

PnL

+$5.08

Record

60%

9374-6357 (15731)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.32

Value

$14.52

PnL

-$0.8

Record

50%

12109-12317 (24426)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.25

Record

47%

2054-2350 (4404)

bernardi22CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$100

Value

$1.32

PnL

+$22.56

Record

56%

1231-954 (2185)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.