Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Sportivo San Lorenzo win on 2026-11-09?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 2.0¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
1 arb excluded
$11.8K
$920.85
53.3¢ → 2¢
-96% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 53.5¢ | $8.6K | $7.4K | $-1.2K | 52% 236-220 (456) |
 RN1 | Noavg 35.2¢ | $1.5K | $3.8K | +$2.2K | 54% 230-199 (429) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 51.9¢ | $364.65 | $216.35 | -$148.3 | 30% 60-139 (199) |
SL SlickRick123 | Noavg 51¢ | $103.68 | $116.46 | +$12.78 | 20% 30-119 (149) |
 dips.ARB<$100 | Yesavg 37.6¢ | $103.88 | $69.84 | -$47.53 | 47% 89-101 (190) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37.6¢ | $88.2 | $43.35 | -$44.85 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48.2¢ | $15.68 | $26.5 | -$2.68 | |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.5¢ | $57.25 | $58.03 | +$0.78 | 60% 37-25 (62) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 52.1¢ | $60.19 | $50.25 | -$9.94 | 38% 88-145 (233) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 64.5¢ | $51.6 | $48 | -$3.6 | 44% 140-177 (317) |
Invested
$8,608.65
Value
$7.4K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
52%
236-220 (456)
RN1Invested
$1,531.3
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$2.2K
Record
54%
230-199 (429)
Invested
$364.65
Value
$216.35
PnL
-$148.3
Record
30%
60-139 (199)
Invested
$103.68
Value
$116.46
PnL
+$12.78
Record
20%
30-119 (149)
dips.ARB<$100Invested
$103.88
Value
$69.84
PnL
-$47.53
Record
47%
89-101 (190)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.25
Value
$58.03
PnL
+$0.78
Record
60%
37-25 (62)
Invested
$60.19
Value
$50.25
PnL
-$9.94
Record
38%
88-145 (233)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$51.6
Value
$48
PnL
-$3.6
Record
44%
140-177 (317)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.