Will Rubio Nu win on 2026-11-09?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 81¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$1.8K
-$126.53
78.5¢ → 80.5¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+36 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 80.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$129.07 | 52% 236-219 (455) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 86¢ | $301 | $257.25 | -$43.75 | 38% 88-145 (233) |
BI biying99999 | Noavg 46¢ | $69.01 | $116.99 | +$47.97 | 6% 2-34 (36) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $74.8 | $64.68 | -$6.16 | 60% 37-25 (62) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 51¢ | $58.61 | $55.14 | -$3.47 | 31% 60-136 (196) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $34.2 | $29.4 | -$4.8 | 44% 139-175 (314) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $15.3 | $22.94 | +$7.65 | 50% 32-32 (64) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $19.59 | $15.09 | +$5.09 | 1% 1-140 (141) |
Invested
$1,384.67
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$129.07
Record
52%
236-219 (455)
Invested
$301
Value
$257.25
PnL
-$43.75
Record
38%
88-145 (233)
Invested
$69.01
Value
$116.99
PnL
+$47.97
Record
6%
2-34 (36)
Invested
$74.8
Value
$64.68
PnL
-$6.16
Record
60%
37-25 (62)
Invested
$58.61
Value
$55.14
PnL
-$3.47
Record
31%
60-136 (196)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$34.2
Value
$29.4
PnL
-$4.8
Record
44%
139-175 (314)
Invested
$15.3
Value
$22.94
PnL
+$7.65
Record
50%
32-32 (64)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$19.59
Value
$15.09
PnL
+$5.09
Record
1%
1-140 (141)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.