Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (83%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Sportivo Luqueno vs. CS 2 de Mayo: O/U 1.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 17¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$43.25
14.5¢ → 17¢
+17% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 89¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$21.39 | 52% 242-224 (466) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 89¢ | $848.15 | $805.27 | -$42.88 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 12.5¢ | $268.95 | $333.22 | +$64.27 | |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 11.7¢ | $164.55 | $175.78 | +$11.23 | 54% 233-201 (434) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 29¢ | $78.95 | $137.48 | +$58.53 | 49% 60-63 (123) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Overavg 89¢ | $44.5 | $24.75 | -$19.75 | 38% 93-154 (247) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $21.65 | $14.88 | -$6.77 | 32% 68-143 (211) |
Invested
$1,117.1
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$21.39
Record
52%
242-224 (466)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$164.55
Value
$175.78
PnL
+$11.23
Record
54%
233-201 (434)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$78.95
Value
$137.48
PnL
+$58.53
Record
49%
60-63 (123)
Invested
$44.5
Value
$24.75
PnL
-$19.75
Record
38%
93-154 (247)
Invested
$21.65
Value
$14.88
PnL
-$6.77
Record
32%
68-143 (211)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.