Sportivo Luqueno vs. CS 2 de Mayo: 1st Half O/U 0.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 9

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$575.89

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,427

Combined PnL-$584.74

Under4 traders

Total Value$491.17

Total Shares1,075

Combined PnL+$8.85

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 99.8¢	$3.0K	$2.4K	-$584.36	52% 242-224 (466)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 45¢	$366.66	$370.73	+$4.07	25% 86-262 (348)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 44.8¢	$93.73	$95.27	+$1.54	24% 90-282 (372)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$12.2	$13.42	+$1.22	23% 82-268 (350)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$9.73	$11.75	+$2.02	54% 233-201 (434)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 56.1¢	$7	$6.62	-$0.38	45% 38-46 (84)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,997.15

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$584.36

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$366.66

Value

$370.73

PnL

+$4.07

Record

25%

86-262 (348)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$93.73

Value

$95.27

PnL

+$1.54

Record

24%

90-282 (372)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.2

Value

$13.42

PnL

+$1.22

Record

23%

82-268 (350)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.73

Value

$11.75

PnL

+$2.02

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$6.62

PnL

-$0.38

Record

45%

38-46 (84)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.