Exact Score: Sportivo Luqueno 3 - 3 CS 2 de Mayo?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 55¢ · $558 held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$558.42
$384.42
98.8¢ → 54.5¢
-45% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 98.5¢ | $1.1K | $452.07 | +$354.04 | 45% 38-47 (85) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $54.68 | $55.14 | +$0.45 | 47% 35-39 (74) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $91.33 | $35.94 | +$34.57 | 33% 72-144 (216) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $19.88 | $12.13 | -$7.75 | 52% 242-227 (469) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.04 | $3.15 | +$3.11 | 54% 235-203 (438) |
Invested
$1,099.4
Value
$452.07
PnL
+$354.04
Record
45%
38-47 (85)
Invested
$54.68
Value
$55.14
PnL
+$0.45
Record
47%
35-39 (74)
Invested
$91.33
Value
$35.94
PnL
+$34.57
Record
33%
72-144 (216)
Invested
$19.88
Value
$12.13
PnL
-$7.75
Record
52%
242-227 (469)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.04
Value
$3.15
PnL
+$3.11
Record
54%
235-203 (438)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.