Exact Score: Sportivo Luqueno 2 - 2 CS 2 de Mayo?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $874 held · ended Nov 9

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$873.64

Combined PnL

-$223.88

Smart Money Entry

94.6¢ → 94.7¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$851.9

Total Shares1,151

Combined PnL-$237.62

Yes3 traders

Total Value$21.75

Total Shares135

Combined PnL+$13.75

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 94.7¢	$689.42	$538.72	-$150.7	54% 233-201 (434)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 94.6¢	$289.16	$226.19	-$62.97	45% 38-46 (84)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 94.4¢	$110.94	$86.98	-$23.96	49% 60-63 (123)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$3.73	$17.33	+$13.6	23% 82-268 (350)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$4	$3.11	-$0.89	25% 86-262 (348)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$0.27	$1.3	+$1.04	52% 242-224 (466)

RN1

Invested

$689.42

Value

$538.72

PnL

-$150.7

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

SnakeBall

Invested

$289.16

Value

$226.19

PnL

-$62.97

Record

45%

38-46 (84)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$110.94

Value

$86.98

PnL

-$23.96

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.73

Value

$17.33

PnL

+$13.6

Record

23%

82-268 (350)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.11

PnL

-$0.89

Record

25%

86-262 (348)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$1.04

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.9%

94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.