Will Sportivo Luqueno vs. CS 2 de Mayo end in a draw?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 74¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$5.4K
-$4.48
75.1¢ → 74¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 75¢ | $3.7K | $3.8K | +$96.79 | 52% 242-224 (466) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 75.5¢ | $867.24 | $884.04 | +$16.8 | 50% 32-32 (64) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $483.42 | $362.57 | -$120.85 | 32% 68-143 (211) |
 RN1 | Noavg 76¢ | $290.7 | $294.53 | +$3.83 | 54% 233-201 (434) |
BI biying99999<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $29.4 | $28.56 | -$0.84 | 6% 2-34 (36) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $7 | $6.8 | -$0.2 | 49% 60-63 (123) |
Invested
$3,705.79
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$96.79
Record
52%
242-224 (466)
Invested
$867.24
Value
$884.04
PnL
+$16.8
Record
50%
32-32 (64)
Invested
$483.42
Value
$362.57
PnL
-$120.85
Record
32%
68-143 (211)
RN1Invested
$290.7
Value
$294.53
PnL
+$3.83
Record
54%
233-201 (434)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$28.56
PnL
-$0.84
Record
6%
2-34 (36)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$7
Value
$6.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
49%
60-63 (123)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.