Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 88¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$1.4K
-$223.83
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1115h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M2 M2sx92kljs42 | Noavg 84¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$39.93 | 73% 337-127 (464) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 24.2¢ | $394.68 | $179.7 | -$214.99 | 36% 14865-26983 (41848) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $25.25 | $28.5 | +$3.25 | 59% 978-672 (1650) |
 RelaccsedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $68.85 | $17.83 | -$51.02 | 56% 1193-949 (2142) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $11 | $11 | -$1 | 56% 955-755 (1710) |
Invested
$1,109
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$39.93
Record
73%
337-127 (464)
Invested
$394.68
Value
$179.7
PnL
-$214.99
Record
36%
14865-26983 (41848)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$25.25
Value
$28.5
PnL
+$3.25
Record
59%
978-672 (1650)
RelaccsedCTR<$100Invested
$68.85
Value
$17.83
PnL
-$51.02
Record
56%
1193-949 (2142)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$11
Value
$11
PnL
-$1
Record
56%
955-755 (1710)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.