Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Over $30M committed to the Mori Finance public sale?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 13¢ · $157 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$157.19
-$19.97
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-15 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $62.76 | $74.46 | +$11.7 | 40% 2992-4404 (7396) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $48.03 | $47.55 | -$0.48 | 27% 499-1343 (1842) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.4¢ | $44.04 | $24.59 | -$19.45 | — 3-6 (9) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $18.09 | $8.38 | -$9.72 | — 0-12 (12) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $6.24 | $2.21 | -$2.03 | — 1-10 (11) |
Invested
$62.76
Value
$74.46
PnL
+$11.7
Record
40%
2992-4404 (7396)
Invested
$48.03
Value
$47.55
PnL
-$0.48
Record
27%
499-1343 (1842)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$44.04
Value
$24.59
PnL
-$19.45
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Invested
$18.09
Value
$8.38
PnL
-$9.72
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Invested
$6.24
Value
$2.21
PnL
-$2.03
Record
—
1-10 (11)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.