Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Over $20M committed to the Mori Finance public sale?

1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 49¢ · $302 held · ends Dec 1

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$302.41

Combined PnL

-$7.8

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$41

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$0

No1 trader

Total Value$30.6

Total Shares60

Combined PnL-$7.8

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KL klli27ARB<$100	Yesavg 50.9¢	$164.97	$149.79	-$15.17	27% 499-1343 (1842)
└ No leg	Noavg 50.4¢	$82.07	$83.04	+$0.97
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.9¢	$82.9	$66.76	-$16.15
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 64.5¢	$91.46	$81.02	-$10.44	40% 2992-4404 (7396)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.5¢	$59.02	$46.64	-$12.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.7¢	$32.44	$34.38	+$1.95
Rex416CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$41	$41	+$0	— 3-0 (3)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 64¢	$38.4	$30.6	-$7.8	52% 5263-4776 (10039)

klli27ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$164.97

Value

$149.79

PnL

-$15.17

Record

27%

499-1343 (1842)

Both legs:

No$82.0750.4¢+$0.97

Yes$82.950.9¢-$16.15

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$91.46

Value

$81.02

PnL

-$10.44

Record

40%

2992-4404 (7396)

Both legs:

Invested

$41

Value

$41

PnL

+$0

Record

—

3-0 (3)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$38.4

Value

$30.6

PnL

-$7.8

Record

52%

5263-4776 (10039)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.