Over $10M committed to the Mori Finance public sale?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 90¢ · $566 held · ends Dec 1

Yes90¢No10¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$565.85

Combined PnL

$132.22

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 90¢

+34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$565.85

Total Shares618

Combined PnL+$132.22

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 62.7¢	$203.09	$281.85	+$78.77	40% 2992-4404 (7396)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 80¢	$160	$180	+$20	48% 1222-1315 (2537)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 32.5¢	$19.5	$54	+$34.5	52% 5263-4776 (10039)
WA WarriorH<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$61.5	$50	-$1.05	— 0-12 (12)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$203.09

Value

$281.85

PnL

+$78.77

Record

40%

2992-4404 (7396)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$160

Value

$180

PnL

+$20

Record

48%

1222-1315 (2537)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.5

Value

$54

PnL

+$34.5

Record

52%

5263-4776 (10039)

WarriorH<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.5

Value

$50

PnL

-$1.05

Record

—

0-12 (12)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.