Will global temperature increase by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 99¢ · $332 held · ends Dec 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$332.16
-$1.37
99.7¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $99.6 | $99.4 | -$0.2 | 53% 5469-4897 (10366) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $88.82 | $88.47 | -$0.36 | 86% 36-6 (42) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.85 | $49.7 | -$0.15 | 29% 2584-6181 (8765) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.85 | $49.7 | -$0.15 | 81% 35-8 (43) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.88 | $29.82 | -$0.06 | 40% 1426-2156 (3582) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $14.97 | $14.91 | -$0.06 | 78% 263-73 (336) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.56 | $0.17 | -$0.39 | 41% 3064-4447 (7511) |
Invested
$99.6
Value
$99.4
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
5469-4897 (10366)
Invested
$88.82
Value
$88.47
PnL
-$0.36
Record
86%
36-6 (42)
Invested
$49.85
Value
$49.7
PnL
-$0.15
Record
29%
2584-6181 (8765)
Invested
$49.85
Value
$49.7
PnL
-$0.15
Record
81%
35-8 (43)
Invested
$29.88
Value
$29.82
PnL
-$0.06
Record
40%
1426-2156 (3582)
Invested
$14.97
Value
$14.91
PnL
-$0.06
Record
78%
263-73 (336)
Invested
$0.56
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$0.39
Record
41%
3064-4447 (7511)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.