Will global temperature increase by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 99¢ · $509 held · ends Dec 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$509.1

Combined PnL

-$2.08

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.4¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$508.93

Total Shares512

Combined PnL-$1.69

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.17

Total Shares28

Combined PnL-$0.39

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KO korda77	Noavg 99.8¢	$266.47	$265.4	-$1.07	84% 38-7 (45)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$99.6	$99.4	-$0.2	53% 5602-5022 (10624)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$49.85	$49.7	-$0.15	30% 2654-6198 (8852)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$49.85	$49.7	-$0.15	82% 41-9 (50)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.82	-$0.06	40% 1444-2158 (3602)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$14.97	$14.91	-$0.06	78% 316-88 (404)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.56	$0.17	-$0.39	41% 3102-4461 (7563)

korda77

Invested

$266.47

Value

$265.4

PnL

-$1.07

Record

84%

38-7 (45)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$99.6

Value

$99.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

5602-5022 (10624)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$49.85

Value

$49.7

PnL

-$0.15

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

merod<$100

Invested

$49.85

Value

$49.7

PnL

-$0.15

Record

82%

41-9 (50)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.82

PnL

-$0.06

Record

40%

1444-2158 (3602)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$14.97

Value

$14.91

PnL

-$0.06

Record

78%

316-88 (404)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.39

Record

41%

3102-4461 (7563)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.