Will global temperature increase by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $233 held · ends Dec 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$232.76
-$1.15
99.7¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $88.82 | $88.47 | -$0.36 | 86% 36-6 (42) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.83 | $49.7 | -$0.13 | 29% 2560-6176 (8736) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.85 | $49.7 | -$0.15 | 83% 33-7 (40) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.88 | $29.82 | -$0.06 | 10% 36-325 (361) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $14.97 | $14.91 | -$0.06 | 78% 249-70 (319) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.56 | $0.17 | -$0.39 | 41% 3059-4446 (7505) |
Invested
$88.82
Value
$88.47
PnL
-$0.36
Record
86%
36-6 (42)
Invested
$49.83
Value
$49.7
PnL
-$0.13
Record
29%
2560-6176 (8736)
Invested
$49.85
Value
$49.7
PnL
-$0.15
Record
83%
33-7 (40)
Invested
$29.88
Value
$29.82
PnL
-$0.06
Record
10%
36-325 (361)
Invested
$14.97
Value
$14.91
PnL
-$0.06
Record
78%
249-70 (319)
Invested
$0.56
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$0.39
Record
41%
3059-4446 (7505)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.