Will Washington Spirit win on 2026-11-08?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$2.7K
$22.18
49.5¢ → 50.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 51.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$39.24 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $847.9 | $929.71 | +$81.81 | 50% 21534-21823 (43357) |
TH TheComboConnoisseur | Yesavg 50¢ | $500 | $540 | -$20 | 53% 1125-987 (2112) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 49.3¢ | $19.7 | $9.91 | -$0.6 | 58% 47475-34259 (81734) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.9¢ | $8.82 | $9.03 | +$0.21 | 53% 2691-2371 (5062) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.3 | +$0 | 50% 26383-26006 (52389) |
Invested
$1,295.64
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$39.24
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
Invested
$847.9
Value
$929.71
PnL
+$81.81
Record
50%
21534-21823 (43357)
Invested
$500
Value
$540
PnL
-$20
Record
53%
1125-987 (2112)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$19.7
Value
$9.91
PnL
-$0.6
Record
58%
47475-34259 (81734)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$8.82
Value
$9.03
PnL
+$0.21
Record
53%
2691-2371 (5062)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26383-26006 (52389)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.