Washington Spirit vs. Utah Royals FC: O/U 3.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 55¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$383.83

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 54.5¢

+14% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,215

Combined PnL+$340.61

Over4 traders

Total Value$476.36

Total Shares713

Combined PnL+$43.22

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 50.1¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	+$79	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 55¢	$492.64	$506.16	+$13.52	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$375.49	$375.28	-$0.21
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.3¢	$117.15	$130.88	+$13.73
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 68¢	$186.62	$214.78	+$28.16	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 30¢	$402.15	$178.32	+$229.14	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
CI cigarettesCTR	Overavg 67¢	$100.5	$120	+$19.5	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$76.52	$82.33	+$5.81	48% 1134-1214 (2348)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 30.2¢	$45.86	$78.34	+$32.48	37% 968-1674 (2642)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 46.3¢	$69.5	$59.25	-$10.25	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 58.9¢	$40.02	$43.52	+$3.5	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 49¢	$25.77	$22.35	-$3.42	37% 977-1669 (2646)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 48¢	$19.05	$18.85	-$0.2	36% 950-1657 (2607)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 34¢	$1.7	$1.5	-$0.2	45% 814-997 (1811)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 20¢	$0.25	$0.55	+$0.3	36% 455-810 (1265)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,057.75

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$79

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$492.64

Value

$506.16

PnL

+$13.52

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

Both legs:

Over$375.4955¢-$0.21

Under$117.1540.3¢+$13.73

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$186.62

Value

$214.78

PnL

+$28.16

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$402.15

Value

$178.32

PnL

+$229.14

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

cigarettesCTR

Over

Invested

$100.5

Value

$120

PnL

+$19.5

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$76.52

Value

$82.33

PnL

+$5.81

Record

48%

1134-1214 (2348)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$45.86

Value

$78.34

PnL

+$32.48

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$69.5

Value

$59.25

PnL

-$10.25

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$40.02

Value

$43.52

PnL

+$3.5

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$25.77

Value

$22.35

PnL

-$3.42

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$19.05

Value

$18.85

PnL

-$0.2

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.2

Record

45%

814-997 (1811)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.3

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.