Will Washington Spirit win on 2026-11-14?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 44%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$27.86
52.5¢ → 50¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-9 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 50.6¢ | $289.73 | $286.52 | -$3.21 | 49% 3844-4007 (7851) |
GA Gaditima | Yesavg 55¢ | $257.79 | $236.5 | -$21.28 | 48% 278-297 (575) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 49¢ | $228 | $232.66 | +$4.65 | 53% 2094-1845 (3939) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Noavg 49.9¢ | $130.15 | $114.78 | -$15.37 | 37% 1030-1738 (2768) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49.9¢ | $89.51 | $70.88 | -$18.64 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 56¢ | $40.64 | $43.9 | +$3.27 | |
 poshposh<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $94.42 | $83.45 | -$10.98 | 48% 1130-1207 (2337) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 40.2¢ | $27.56 | $31.17 | +$3.61 | 50% 1593-1618 (3211) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $20.23 | $20.23 | +$0 | 46% 2679-3158 (5837) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $15.75 | $15 | -$0.75 | 48% 2091-2257 (4348) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $13.9 | $13.9 | +$0 | 30% 340-779 (1119) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $1.19 | $1.29 | +$0.1 | 36% 443-803 (1246) |
Invested
$289.73
Value
$286.52
PnL
-$3.21
Record
49%
3844-4007 (7851)
Invested
$257.79
Value
$236.5
PnL
-$21.28
Record
48%
278-297 (575)
Invested
$228
Value
$232.66
PnL
+$4.65
Record
53%
2094-1845 (3939)
Invested
$130.15
Value
$114.78
PnL
-$15.37
Record
37%
1030-1738 (2768)
Both legs:
poshposh<$100Invested
$94.42
Value
$83.45
PnL
-$10.98
Record
48%
1130-1207 (2337)
Invested
$27.56
Value
$31.17
PnL
+$3.61
Record
50%
1593-1618 (3211)
Invested
$20.23
Value
$20.23
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
2679-3158 (5837)
Invested
$15.75
Value
$15
PnL
-$0.75
Record
48%
2091-2257 (4348)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$13.9
Value
$13.9
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
340-779 (1119)
Invested
$1.19
Value
$1.29
PnL
+$0.1
Record
36%
443-803 (1246)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.