Will Utah Royals FC win on 2026-11-14?
7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 81¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 58%
$1.1K
$30.96
70.9¢ → 81¢
+14% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 70.2¢ | $434.16 | $426.68 | -$7.48 | 37% 1030-1738 (2768) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 69.5¢ | $278.59 | $284.55 | +$5.96 | 48% 3222-3520 (6742) |
PA Pan9X | Noavg 70.1¢ | $160.13 | $148.24 | +$34.48 | 50% 1593-1618 (3211) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $67 | $69.39 | +$2.39 | 53% 2094-1845 (3939) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.9¢ | $50.38 | $44.92 | -$5.46 | 49% 3844-4007 (7851) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 83.7¢ | $37.08 | $37.2 | +$0.12 | 37% 972-1637 (2609) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 83.8¢ | $33.5 | $33.6 | +$0.1 | 36% 953-1669 (2622) |
 alpheclabs2<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $15.68 | $18.82 | +$3.14 | 45% 293-351 (644) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $10 | $7 | -$3 | 40% 435-654 (1089) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $6.6 | $6.68 | +$0.08 | 36% 937-1647 (2584) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $3.06 | $4.28 | +$1.22 | 48% 2091-2257 (4348) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $2.2 | $1.6 | -$0.6 | 50% 155-156 (311) |
Invested
$434.16
Value
$426.68
PnL
-$7.48
Record
37%
1030-1738 (2768)
Invested
$278.59
Value
$284.55
PnL
+$5.96
Record
48%
3222-3520 (6742)
Invested
$160.13
Value
$148.24
PnL
+$34.48
Record
50%
1593-1618 (3211)
Invested
$67
Value
$69.39
PnL
+$2.39
Record
53%
2094-1845 (3939)
Invested
$50.38
Value
$44.92
PnL
-$5.46
Record
49%
3844-4007 (7851)
Invested
$37.08
Value
$37.2
PnL
+$0.12
Record
37%
972-1637 (2609)
Invested
$33.5
Value
$33.6
PnL
+$0.1
Record
36%
953-1669 (2622)
alpheclabs2<$100Invested
$15.68
Value
$18.82
PnL
+$3.14
Record
45%
293-351 (644)
Invested
$10
Value
$7
PnL
-$3
Record
40%
435-654 (1089)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$6.68
PnL
+$0.08
Record
36%
937-1647 (2584)
Invested
$3.06
Value
$4.28
PnL
+$1.22
Record
48%
2091-2257 (4348)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$1.6
PnL
-$0.6
Record
50%
155-156 (311)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.