Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Kansas City Current win on 2026-11-07?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$1.3K
-$8.6
49.8¢ → 47.5¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 51.4¢ | $675.67 | $687.14 | +$11.47 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
TH TheComboConnoisseurCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $500.09 | $475 | -$15 | 53% 1125-987 (2112) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $152.04 | $146.65 | -$5.4 | 50% 21534-21823 (43357) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $2.83 | $3.04 | +$0.17 | 53% 2691-2371 (5062) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.63 | +$0.15 | 50% 26383-26006 (52389) |
Invested
$675.67
Value
$687.14
PnL
+$11.47
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
Invested
$500.09
Value
$475
PnL
-$15
Record
53%
1125-987 (2112)
Invested
$152.04
Value
$146.65
PnL
-$5.4
Record
50%
21534-21823 (43357)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$2.83
Value
$3.04
PnL
+$0.17
Record
53%
2691-2371 (5062)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.63
PnL
+$0.15
Record
50%
26383-26006 (52389)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.