Will NJ/NY Gotham FC win on 2026-11-15?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$165.54
75.2¢ → 93¢
+24% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 88¢ | $534.23 | $540.3 | +$6.07 | 46% 1234-1428 (2662) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 60.7¢ | $369.63 | $494.02 | +$124.39 | 52% 2587-2373 (4960) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $183.77 | $145.53 | -$20.18 | 48% 4819-5125 (9944) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 85.6¢ | $92.44 | $100.37 | +$9.36 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 11.6¢ | $74.7 | $45.16 | -$29.54 | |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $59.9 | $56.69 | +$23.7 | 50% 2215-2229 (4444) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 60¢ | $108.78 | $21.12 | +$15.67 | 48% 4056-4455 (8511) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $23.66 | $20.11 | -$3.55 | 39% 1657-2634 (4291) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $18.51 | $18.06 | -$0.44 | 41% 1218-1750 (2968) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $4.62 | $4.79 | +$0.17 | 45% 1018-1224 (2242) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.02 | $0.55 | -$0.47 | 48% 2643-2871 (5514) |
Invested
$534.23
Value
$540.3
PnL
+$6.07
Record
46%
1234-1428 (2662)
Invested
$369.63
Value
$494.02
PnL
+$124.39
Record
52%
2587-2373 (4960)
Invested
$183.77
Value
$145.53
PnL
-$20.18
Record
48%
4819-5125 (9944)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.9
Value
$56.69
PnL
+$23.7
Record
50%
2215-2229 (4444)
Invested
$108.78
Value
$21.12
PnL
+$15.67
Record
48%
4056-4455 (8511)
Invested
$23.66
Value
$20.11
PnL
-$3.55
Record
39%
1657-2634 (4291)
Invested
$18.51
Value
$18.06
PnL
-$0.44
Record
41%
1218-1750 (2968)
Invested
$4.62
Value
$4.79
PnL
+$0.17
Record
45%
1018-1224 (2242)
Invested
$1.02
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$0.47
Record
48%
2643-2871 (5514)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.