Will Stabaek IF win on 2026-11-08?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 52¢ · $459 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$458.89
$20.55
46.9¢ → 52¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $239.3 | $226.11 | -$7.6 | 50% 21156-21414 (42570) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55.2¢ | $180.14 | $164.68 | -$11.41 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 47.7¢ | $59.16 | $61.43 | +$3.81 | |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 47¢ | $190.26 | $210.56 | +$20.3 | 51% 25716-24429 (50145) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $9.74 | $10.48 | +$0.74 | 50% 25811-25501 (51312) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $10 | $9.52 | -$0.09 | 53% 2570-2251 (4821) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $7.42 | $2.23 | -$0.39 | 58% 46667-33629 (80296) |
Invested
$239.3
Value
$226.11
PnL
-$7.6
Record
50%
21156-21414 (42570)
Both legs:
Invested
$190.26
Value
$210.56
PnL
+$20.3
Record
51%
25716-24429 (50145)
Invested
$9.74
Value
$10.48
PnL
+$0.74
Record
50%
25811-25501 (51312)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$9.52
PnL
-$0.09
Record
53%
2570-2251 (4821)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$7.42
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$0.39
Record
58%
46667-33629 (80296)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.