Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Moss FK vs. Ranheim: O/U 3.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 50¢ · $346 held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$346.22
-$5.22
52.3¢ → 49.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 55.2¢ | $138 | $148.75 | -$4.25 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 49.4¢ | $140.05 | $140.21 | +$0.16 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 48.1¢ | $41.4 | $40.5 | -$0.9 | 50% 21821-22062 (43883) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $10 | $10.82 | -$0.27 | 53% 2714-2387 (5101) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $5.4 | $5.95 | +$0.05 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$138
Value
$148.75
PnL
-$4.25
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$140.05
Value
$140.21
PnL
+$0.16
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$41.4
Value
$40.5
PnL
-$0.9
Record
50%
21821-22062 (43883)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10.82
PnL
-$0.27
Record
53%
2714-2387 (5101)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$5.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.