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UnderOverUnderUnderUnderOver
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Kjelsaas vs. Bjarg: O/U 4.5
Resolved Over. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$273.42
Combined PnL
$68.96
Smart Money Signal
Under
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Over100%
Under0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Over2 traders
Total Value$164.72
Total Shares165
Combined PnL+$128.24
Under3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares220
Combined PnL-$59.28
Over — 40%Under — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 61.3¢ | $247.48 | $108.7 | -$138.78 | 49% 3844-4007 (7851) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 80.7¢ | $87.72 | $108.7 | +$20.98 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 61.3¢ | $159.76 | — | -$159.76 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 22.1¢ | $36.48 | $164.72 | +$128.24 | 53% 2094-1845 (3939) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $28.57 | — | -$28.57 | 37% 964-1664 (2628) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 77.5¢ | $30.01 | — | -$30.01 | 42% 1002-1373 (2375) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 26¢ | $0.7 | — | -$0.7 | 36% 443-803 (1246) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Overavg 50¢ | $242 | — | +$0 | 69% 133-60 (193) |
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100Invested
$247.48
Value
$108.7
PnL
-$138.78
Record
49%
3844-4007 (7851)
Both legs:
Over$87.7280.7¢+$20.98
Under$159.7661.3¢-$159.76
GO
GoalLineGhostInvested
$36.48
Value
$164.72
PnL
+$128.24
Record
53%
2094-1845 (3939)
LI
LightParadoxCTR<$100Invested
$28.57
Value
—
PnL
-$28.57
Record
37%
964-1664 (2628)
SE
sentrioCTR<$100Invested
$30.01
Value
—
PnL
-$30.01
Record
42%
1002-1373 (2375)
LU
LuckyLooCTR<$100Invested
$0.7
Value
—
PnL
-$0.7
Record
36%
443-803 (1246)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesInvested
$242
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
133-60 (193)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xb522249e...f61437
Slug
nor2-kje-bja-2026-11-14-total-4pt5