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YesNo
rayvanmechelenCTRNoYesNoNoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will Bjarg win on 2026-11-14?
Resolved Yes. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
No 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$436.69
Combined PnL
-$28.66
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$361.7
Total Shares362
Combined PnL+$209.09
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares359
Combined PnL-$237.75
Yes — 33%No — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 33.6¢ | $150.61 | $351.7 | +$201.09 | 53% 2094-1845 (3939) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 59.6¢ | $123.63 | $74.99 | -$48.64 | 49% 3844-4007 (7851) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41.9¢ | $31.39 | $74.99 | +$43.6 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.6¢ | $92.24 | — | -$92.24 | |
rayvanmechelenCTR | Noavg 66.4¢ | $233.7 | — | -$233.7 | 9% 30-286 (316) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $2 | $10 | +$8 | 48% 2091-2257 (4348) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $3.45 | — | -$3.45 | 37% 972-1637 (2609) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $0.6 | — | -$0.6 | 36% 443-803 (1246) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Noavg 50¢ | $1.8K | — | +$0 | 69% 133-60 (193) |
GO
GoalLineGhostInvested
$150.61
Value
$351.7
PnL
+$201.09
Record
53%
2094-1845 (3939)
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100Invested
$123.63
Value
$74.99
PnL
-$48.64
Record
49%
3844-4007 (7851)
Both legs:
Yes$31.3941.9¢+$43.6
No$92.2459.6¢-$92.24
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$233.7
Value
—
PnL
-$233.7
Record
9%
30-286 (316)
FE
ferdinand2<$100Invested
$2
Value
$10
PnL
+$8
Record
48%
2091-2257 (4348)
MA
MadridTimeCTR<$100Invested
$3.45
Value
—
PnL
-$3.45
Record
37%
972-1637 (2609)
LU
LuckyLooCTR<$100Invested
$0.6
Value
—
PnL
-$0.6
Record
36%
443-803 (1246)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTRInvested
$1,838
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
133-60 (193)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xeab0c81e...0a3e08
Slug
nor2-kje-bja-2026-11-14-bja