Spread: Viking FK (-1.5)
3 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Viking FK (21%) · Viking FK at 99¢ · $83K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Viking FK
14
Viking FK 21%
$82.8K
$-1.2K
58.8¢ → 98.5¢
+68% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralViking FK at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 14 top traders (21%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
21% of non-arb traders are on Viking FK. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34 | Viking FKavg 57.9¢ | $45.3K | $54.0K | +$8.6K | 48% 214-236 (450) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR | KFUM-Kameratene Osloavg 42¢ | $55.5K | $17.8K | $-5.6K | 46% 33216-38836 (72052) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Viking FKavg 71.6¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | -$95.1 | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | KFUM-Kameratene Osloavg 42¢ | $10.6K | $2.5K | $-2.0K | 48% 2032-2230 (4262) |
 RN1CTR | KFUM-Kameratene Osloavg 42¢ | $5.0K | $1.1K | $-1.0K | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | KFUM-Kameratene Osloavg 42.2¢ | $848.86 | $1.0K | -$574.26 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
SE sentrioCTR | KFUM-Kameratene Osloavg 41.5¢ | $2.1K | $657.65 | -$195.38 | 51% 27916-27361 (55277) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | KFUM-Kameratene Osloavg 42.5¢ | $1.2K | $380 | -$124.69 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | KFUM-Kameratene Osloavg 42¢ | $1.4K | $337.44 | -$265.49 | 46% 30563-35669 (66232) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | KFUM-Kameratene Osloavg 39¢ | $344.34 | $110.19 | -$24.1 | 50% 48537-48152 (96689) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | KFUM-Kameratene Osloavg 42.4¢ | $76.57 | $24.5 | -$7.98 | 49% 2102-2190 (4292) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | KFUM-Kameratene Osloavg 40¢ | $20 | $6.4 | -$1.6 | 48% 2039-2213 (4252) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Viking FKavg 58¢ | $5 | $3.4 | +$0.5 | 52% 9470-8570 (18040) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | KFUM-Kameratene Osloavg 29¢ | $0.48 | $0.53 | +$0.05 | 46% 12026-13917 (25943) |
Invested
$45,320.22
Value
$54.0K
PnL
+$8.6K
Record
48%
214-236 (450)
Invested
$55,507.88
Value
$17.8K
PnL
$-5.6K
Record
46%
33216-38836 (72052)
Invested
$5,033
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$95.1
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
Invested
$10,600.62
Value
$2.5K
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
48%
2032-2230 (4262)
RN1CTRInvested
$5,000
Value
$1.1K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$848.86
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$574.26
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$2,055.17
Value
$657.65
PnL
-$195.38
Record
51%
27916-27361 (55277)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,200
Value
$380
PnL
-$124.69
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
Invested
$1,435.91
Value
$337.44
PnL
-$265.49
Record
46%
30563-35669 (66232)
Invested
$344.34
Value
$110.19
PnL
-$24.1
Record
50%
48537-48152 (96689)
Invested
$76.57
Value
$24.5
PnL
-$7.98
Record
49%
2102-2190 (4292)
Invested
$20
Value
$6.4
PnL
-$1.6
Record
48%
2039-2213 (4252)
Invested
$5
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$0.5
Record
52%
9470-8570 (18040)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$0.48
Value
$0.53
PnL
+$0.05
Record
46%
12026-13917 (25943)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
1l2ihj34li12u34
Viking FK — $54.0K
ferrariChampions2026
CTRKFUM-Kameratene Oslo — $17.8K
GoalLineGhost
Viking FK — $4.9K
MadridTime
CTRKFUM-Kameratene Oslo — $2.5K
RN1
CTRKFUM-Kameratene Oslo — $1.1K
Flaznorp
CTRKFUM-Kameratene Oslo — $1.0K
sentrio
CTRKFUM-Kameratene Oslo — $657.65
VeryLucky888
CTRKFUM-Kameratene Oslo — $380
LuckyLoo
CTRKFUM-Kameratene Oslo — $337.44
SnakeBall
CTRKFUM-Kameratene Oslo — $110.19