Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2026-11-08?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 8.5¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Yes9¢No91¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$291.87

Smart Money Entry

68.4¢ → 8.5¢

-88% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,480

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$640.05

Total Shares4,318

Combined PnL$-2.3K

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 30¢	$1.9K	$3.9K	+$2.0K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 72.3¢	$2.6K	$301.18	$-2.3K	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 57.7¢	$379.13	$189.57	-$29.25	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Noavg 41.6¢	$299.04	$149.52	+$18.25	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
└ No leg	Noavg 41.6¢	$82.46	$99.04	+$16.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48.3¢	$48.8	$50.49	+$1.68
RN1CTR	Yesavg 48.4¢	$256.15	$128.07	+$4.08	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 91¢	$64.57	$46.48	-$18.09	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 45¢	$71.41	$35.7	+$9.42	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.6¢	$36.26	$13.47	-$22.79	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 45¢	$20	$10	+$1	56% 39445-31086 (70531)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.9¢	$18.1	$7.76	-$10.34	49% 2102-2190 (4292)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,911.04

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,562.66

Value

$301.18

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$379.13

Value

$189.57

PnL

-$29.25

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Invested

$299.04

Value

$149.52

PnL

+$18.25

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

Both legs:

Invested

$256.15

Value

$128.07

PnL

+$4.08

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$64.57

Value

$46.48

PnL

-$18.09

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$71.41

Value

$35.7

PnL

+$9.42

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.26

Value

$13.47

PnL

-$22.79

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$10

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

39445-31086 (70531)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.1

Value

$7.76

PnL

-$10.34

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.9%

8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$907.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

1007.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.