Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-11-08?

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (31%) · Yes at 53¢ · $36K held · ends Nov 8

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.1K

Combined PnL

$74.57

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 52.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$20.3K

Total Shares37,981

Combined PnL+$256.22

No9 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares27,822

Combined PnL-$181.65

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hovistomaradona	Yesavg 52.8¢	$20.0K	$20.3K	+$258.54	56% 18-14 (32)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 47¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	-$55.73	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 47¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$33.86	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$41.55	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ No leg	Noavg 47¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$23.47
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55¢	$663	$644.92	-$18.08
RN1CTR	Noavg 47¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$25	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 48¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$58.57	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 46.8¢	$208.26	$198.25	-$1.54	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$39.14	$38.77	-$0.37	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 57.2¢	$39.72	$37.4	-$2.32	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 46.8¢	$32.99	$32.79	-$0.2	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$37.63	$31.98	-$5.65	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$8.19	$7.46	-$0.73	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 57.2¢	$4.04	$4.16	+$0.12	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.68	-$0.12	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

hovistomaradona

Yes

Invested

$20,019.51

Value

$20.3K

PnL

+$258.54

Record

56%

18-14 (32)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$5,238.62

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$55.73

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$3,345.85

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$33.86

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$2,869.15

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$41.55

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

No$2,206.1647¢-$23.47

Yes$66355¢-$18.08

RN1CTR

Invested

$2,350

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$25

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$1,874.28

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$58.57

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$208.26

Value

$198.25

PnL

-$1.54

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$39.14

Value

$38.77

PnL

-$0.37

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.72

Value

$37.4

PnL

-$2.32

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$32.99

Value

$32.79

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$37.63

Value

$31.98

PnL

-$5.65

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$8.19

Value

$7.46

PnL

-$0.73

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.04

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$0.12

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.68

PnL

-$0.12

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.