Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-11-08?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$823.69

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 99.5¢

+29% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,915

Combined PnL-$820.23

Yes4 traders

Total Value$163.02

Total Shares665

Combined PnL-$3.45

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 76.5¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$482.99	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 72.6¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	+$47.25	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 93.3¢	$871.35	$477.27	-$394.08	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Yesavg 34.1¢	$337.22	$240.48	-$96.74	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
└ No leg	Noavg 77.9¢	$147.11	$162.4	+$15.28
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.1¢	$190.1	$78.08	-$112.02
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$615.32	$150.75	-$3.08	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
LI Limousin	Noavg 85.6¢	$112.55	$108.1	-$4.45	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 74.2¢	$40.54	$44.96	+$4.42	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
alpheclabs2<$100	Noavg 69¢	$29.85	$31.36	+$1.51	47% 1601-1796 (3397)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 75¢	$19.32	$14.59	+$0.1	52% 1527-1394 (2921)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 64¢	$6.4	$8.45	+$2.05	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 69.5¢	$10	$7.55	+$0.6	52% 6029-5557 (11586)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$26.03	$6.38	-$0.39	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.65	$5.36	+$5.35	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$21.38	$5.24	+$0.02	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$0.65	$0.65	+$0	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,042.16

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$482.99

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

cigarettes

Invested

$1,650

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$47.25

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$871.35

Value

$477.27

PnL

-$394.08

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$337.22

Value

$240.48

PnL

-$96.74

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

Both legs:

No$147.1177.9¢+$15.28

Yes$190.134.1¢-$112.02

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$615.32

Value

$150.75

PnL

-$3.08

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

Limousin

Invested

$112.55

Value

$108.1

PnL

-$4.45

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$40.54

Value

$44.96

PnL

+$4.42

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

alpheclabs2<$100

Invested

$29.85

Value

$31.36

PnL

+$1.51

Record

47%

1601-1796 (3397)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$19.32

Value

$14.59

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

1527-1394 (2921)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$2.05

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$7.55

PnL

+$0.6

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.03

Value

$6.38

PnL

-$0.39

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$5.36

PnL

+$5.35

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.38

Value

$5.24

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.