Spread: Vålerenga Fotball (-3.5)

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kristiansund BK (17%) · Kristiansund BK at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9

Vålerenga Fotball5¢Kristiansund BK95¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kristiansund BK

Consensus Traders

Kristiansund BK 17%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$11.53

Research grade

NeutralKristiansund BK at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kristiansund BK

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Vålerenga Fotball5%

Kristiansund BK95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kristiansund BK1 trader

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,703

Combined PnL+$3.45

Vålerenga Fotball5 traders

Total Value$112.35

Total Shares2,590

Combined PnL+$8.09

Kristiansund BK — 17%Vålerenga Fotball — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Kristiansund BK. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKristiansund BK 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrKristiansund BK 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Vålerenga Fotball 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Kristiansund BKavg 96.1¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	+$3.45	50% 33896-34147 (68043)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Vålerenga Fotballavg 4¢	$46.07	$51.45	+$5.38	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Vålerenga Fotballavg 4¢	$26.26	$25.37	-$0.89	45% 2751-3326 (6077)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Vålerenga Fotballavg 3¢	$13.42	$15.81	+$2.39	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Vålerenga Fotballavg 4¢	$335.25	$14.42	+$1.01	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Vålerenga Fotballavg 5.1¢	$5.11	$5.31	+$0.2	50% 49324-48846 (98170)

GoalLineGhost

Kristiansund BK

Invested

$2,702.67

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$3.45

Record

50%

33896-34147 (68043)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Vålerenga Fotball

Invested

$46.07

Value

$51.45

PnL

+$5.38

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Vålerenga Fotball

Invested

$26.26

Value

$25.37

PnL

-$0.89

Record

45%

2751-3326 (6077)

VenusianCTR<$100

Vålerenga Fotball

Invested

$13.42

Value

$15.81

PnL

+$2.39

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

MadridTimeCTR

Vålerenga Fotball

Invested

$335.25

Value

$14.42

PnL

+$1.01

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Vålerenga Fotball

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.31

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

49324-48846 (98170)

Research grade

NeutralKristiansund BK at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kristiansund BK

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Kristiansund BK. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKristiansund BK 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrKristiansund BK 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Vålerenga Fotball 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kristiansund BK wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.9%

94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.