Will Kristiansund BK win on 2026-11-07?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 67¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 7

Yes34¢No66¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

-$14.61

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 66.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares11,392

Combined PnL-$43.99

No8 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares8,444

Combined PnL+$29.38

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Yesavg 34.7¢	$3.9K	$3.7K	-$43.99	49% 591-609 (1200)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 66.2¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$11.17	50% 33652-33928 (67580)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 65.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$20.89	52% 49211-46180 (95391)
└ No leg	Noavg 65.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.35
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.8¢	$502.17	$469.93	-$32.24
VE Venusian	Noavg 67.1¢	$922.62	$911.26	-$7.04	45% 2644-3186 (5830)
NM NM-P	Noavg 66¢	$451.65	$455.07	+$3.42	57% 22784-16893 (39677)
GC GC-P	Noavg 66¢	$451.62	$455.05	+$3.42	57% 22634-16889 (39523)
LI Limousin	Noavg 67.1¢	$361.81	$380.02	+$18.21	46% 2665-3073 (5738)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 67.1¢	$344.71	$341.52	-$3.19	45% 2577-3112 (5689)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Noavg 66¢	$168.5	$216.21	-$1.5	51% 28741-28115 (56856)
└ No leg	Noavg 66¢	$141.81	$142.88	+$1.07
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36¢	$78.8	$73.33	-$2.58
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	57% 213-159 (372)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 66¢	$180.75	$182.12	+$1.37	46% 30947-36343 (67290)
BI biying99999<$100	Noavg 66¢	$29.7	$31.72	+$2.02	48% 173-188 (361)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,880

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$43.99

Record

49%

591-609 (1200)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,916.99

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$11.17

Record

50%

33652-33928 (67580)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$1,611.12

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$20.89

Record

52%

49211-46180 (95391)

Both legs:

No$1,108.9565.8¢+$11.35

Yes$502.1735.8¢-$32.24

Venusian

Invested

$922.62

Value

$911.26

PnL

-$7.04

Record

45%

2644-3186 (5830)

NM-P

Invested

$451.65

Value

$455.07

PnL

+$3.42

Record

57%

22784-16893 (39677)

GC-P

Invested

$451.62

Value

$455.05

PnL

+$3.42

Record

57%

22634-16889 (39523)

Limousin

Invested

$361.81

Value

$380.02

PnL

+$18.21

Record

46%

2665-3073 (5738)

MadridTime

Invested

$344.71

Value

$341.52

PnL

-$3.19

Record

45%

2577-3112 (5689)

sentrioARB<$100

Invested

$168.5

Value

$216.21

PnL

-$1.5

Record

51%

28741-28115 (56856)

Both legs:

No$141.8166¢+$1.07

Yes$78.836¢-$2.58

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

213-159 (372)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$180.75

Value

$182.12

PnL

+$1.37

Record

46%

30947-36343 (67290)

biying99999<$100

Invested

$29.7

Value

$31.72

PnL

+$2.02

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.