Will Kristiansund BK vs. Vålerenga Fotball end in a draw?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 77¢ · $180 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$179.55
$1.32
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $82 | $82 | +$0 | 56% 196-152 (348) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $45.03 | $44.74 | -$0.29 | 47% 2196-2511 (4707) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 22¢ | $108.37 | $35.27 | +$1.08 | 52% 47498-44700 (92198) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $9.79 | $9.99 | +$0.2 | 59% 52520-37212 (89732) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $19.22 | $4.42 | +$0.19 | 57% 22524-16688 (39212) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $13.57 | $3.12 | +$0.14 | 58% 22615-16691 (39306) |
Invested
$82
Value
$82
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
196-152 (348)
Invested
$45.03
Value
$44.74
PnL
-$0.29
Record
47%
2196-2511 (4707)
Invested
$108.37
Value
$35.27
PnL
+$1.08
Record
52%
47498-44700 (92198)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$9.79
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0.2
Record
59%
52520-37212 (89732)
Invested
$19.22
Value
$4.42
PnL
+$0.19
Record
57%
22524-16688 (39212)
Invested
$13.57
Value
$3.12
PnL
+$0.14
Record
58%
22615-16691 (39306)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.