Kristiansund BK vs. Vålerenga Fotball: Both Teams to Score
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 70¢ · $215 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$214.54
$1.47
Research grade
NeutralYes at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 68.3¢ | $99.3 | $105.33 | +$1.64 | 52% 49669-46633 (96302) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $83 | $82.59 | -$0.41 | 57% 215-161 (376) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $41.5 | $57.27 | +$15.77 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $41.5 | $25.31 | -$16.19 | |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $16.03 | $15.77 | -$0.26 | 45% 2764-3372 (6136) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $6 | $6.1 | +$0.1 | 46% 2861-3344 (6205) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $4.76 | $4.75 | -$0.01 | 51% 28858-28213 (57071) |
Invested
$99.3
Value
$105.33
PnL
+$1.64
Record
52%
49669-46633 (96302)
Invested
$83
Value
$82.59
PnL
-$0.41
Record
57%
215-161 (376)
Both legs:
Invested
$16.03
Value
$15.77
PnL
-$0.26
Record
45%
2764-3372 (6136)
Invested
$6
Value
$6.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
46%
2861-3344 (6205)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.75
PnL
-$0.01
Record
51%
28858-28213 (57071)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.