Will there be no House floor vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 85¢ · $230 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
$230.03
$5.44
81.1¢ → 84.5¢
+4% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 78.4¢ | $58.8 | $63 | +$4.2 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 84.8¢ | $56.47 | $55.97 | -$0.5 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 78.5¢ | $47.1 | $50.4 | +$3.3 | 50% 4474-4422 (8896) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $25.8 | $25.2 | -$0.6 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $9.73 | $10.75 | +$1.02 | 38% 1190-1979 (3169) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $15.94 | $5.74 | -$1.63 | — 0-12 (12) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $5.74 | $5.6 | -$0.13 | 35% 2848-5314 (8162) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.3¢ | $5.44 | $4.96 | -$0.48 | 40% 2992-4404 (7396) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $4.3 | $4.2 | -$0.1 | 90% 28-3 (31) |
JE Jest55<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $3.85 | $4.2 | +$0.35 | — 1-16 (17) |
Invested
$58.8
Value
$63
PnL
+$4.2
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$56.47
Value
$55.97
PnL
-$0.5
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
balthazar<$100Invested
$47.1
Value
$50.4
PnL
+$3.3
Record
50%
4474-4422 (8896)
Invested
$25.8
Value
$25.2
PnL
-$0.6
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Invested
$9.73
Value
$10.75
PnL
+$1.02
Record
38%
1190-1979 (3169)
Invested
$15.94
Value
$5.74
PnL
-$1.63
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5.74
Value
$5.6
PnL
-$0.13
Record
35%
2848-5314 (8162)
Invested
$5.44
Value
$4.96
PnL
-$0.48
Record
40%
2992-4404 (7396)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.1
Record
90%
28-3 (31)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$4.2
PnL
+$0.35
Record
—
1-16 (17)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.