No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 71¢ · $692 held · ends Dec 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$691.57
$2.54
63.4¢ → 71¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
404h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 63.6¢ | $313.65 | $255.52 | -$10.08 | 29% 279-667 (946) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 63.6¢ | $162.61 | $181.42 | +$12.56 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 39.3¢ | $100.43 | $74.1 | -$22.63 | |
 0xdc3E831cad | Yesavg 64.3¢ | $169.07 | $207.79 | +$11.11 | 49% 1812-1893 (3705) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 60.6¢ | $152.32 | $158.93 | +$6.61 | 35% 14716-26896 (41612) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.7¢ | $73.01 | $41.55 | -$13.94 | 42% 5191-7110 (12301) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 73.5¢ | $29.4 | $27.78 | -$1.24 | 18% 3780-17066 (20846) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$313.65
Value
$255.52
PnL
-$10.08
Record
29%
279-667 (946)
Both legs:
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$169.07
Value
$207.79
PnL
+$11.11
Record
49%
1812-1893 (3705)
Invested
$152.32
Value
$158.93
PnL
+$6.61
Record
35%
14716-26896 (41612)
Invested
$73.01
Value
$41.55
PnL
-$13.94
Record
42%
5191-7110 (12301)
2B9S<$100Invested
$29.4
Value
$27.78
PnL
-$1.24
Record
18%
3780-17066 (20846)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.