No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 18

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Fri, Dec 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$129.26

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 92¢

+24% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,158

Combined PnL+$144.45

Yes4 traders

Total Value$15.77

Total Shares159

Combined PnL-$15.19

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 66.6¢	$346.46	$277.49	+$46.43	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
VE VerilyWinningly	Noavg 88.1¢	$189.38	$199.95	+$10.57	21% 315-1207 (1522)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 63¢	$131.95	$187.5	+$55.54	50% 1278-1291 (2569)
Istaroth	Noavg 83.9¢	$158.57	$153.96	-$1.69	14% 461-2758 (3219)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 86.4¢	$88.59	$95.35	+$6.77	28% 485-1268 (1753)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 59.5¢	$78.75	$80.83	+$2.08	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 69.5¢	$47.23	$63.24	+$16.01	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$28	$27.9	-$0.1	32% 2522-5398 (7920)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 59¢	$15.34	$24.18	+$8.84	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.6¢	$24.36	$10.43	-$13.93	27% 6849-18792 (25641)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.2¢	$3.7	$2.31	-$1.39	44% 2192-2843 (5035)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$2.1	$2.1	+$0	48% 1884-2013 (3897)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.8	$0.93	+$0.13	51% 258-247 (505)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$346.46

Value

$277.49

PnL

+$46.43

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

VerilyWinningly

Invested

$189.38

Value

$199.95

PnL

+$10.57

Record

21%

315-1207 (1522)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$131.95

Value

$187.5

PnL

+$55.54

Record

50%

1278-1291 (2569)

Istaroth

Invested

$158.57

Value

$153.96

PnL

-$1.69

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$88.59

Value

$95.35

PnL

+$6.77

Record

28%

485-1268 (1753)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$78.75

Value

$80.83

PnL

+$2.08

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$47.23

Value

$63.24

PnL

+$16.01

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$28

Value

$27.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

korda77<$100

Invested

$15.34

Value

$24.18

PnL

+$8.84

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.36

Value

$10.43

PnL

-$13.93

Record

27%

6849-18792 (25641)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.7

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$1.39

Record

44%

2192-2843 (5035)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1884-2013 (3897)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$0.13

Record

51%

258-247 (505)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.