No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after December 2026 meeting?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 61¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 17

Yes61¢No39¢Ends Thu, Dec 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$5.59

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 60.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,380

Combined PnL-$25.8

No2 traders

Total Value$313.17

Total Shares763

Combined PnL+$20.21

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FI firegold	Yesavg 59.8¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$53.82	59% 309-217 (526)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 43.5¢	$467.14	$274.15	-$7.78	36% 15094-27222 (42316)
└ No leg	Noavg 43.5¢	$190.3	$181.49	+$3.2
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.1¢	$90.46	$92.66	-$10.99
SH shiifooCTR	Noavg 37.7¢	$222.7	$245.05	+$22.35	60% 3286-2206 (5492)
0xdc3E831cad	Yesavg 49.6¢	$147.21	$175.23	+$28.02	49% 1818-1894 (3712)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 40.7¢	$70.26	$68.12	-$2.14	50% 1651-1638 (3289)

firegold

Yes

Invested

$2,442.43

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$53.82

Record

59%

309-217 (526)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$467.14

Value

$274.15

PnL

-$7.78

Record

36%

15094-27222 (42316)

Both legs:

No$190.343.5¢+$3.2

Yes$90.4657.1¢-$10.99

shiifooCTR

Invested

$222.7

Value

$245.05

PnL

+$22.35

Record

60%

3286-2206 (5492)

0xdc3E831cad

Yes

Invested

$147.21

Value

$175.23

PnL

+$28.02

Record

49%

1818-1894 (3712)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$70.26

Value

$68.12

PnL

-$2.14

Record

50%

1651-1638 (3289)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.