Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Maidenhead United FC win on 2026-11-07?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 41¢ · $573 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$573.1
-$1.95
42¢ → 40.5¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 58.4¢ | $275.99 | $281.23 | +$5.24 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $163.98 | $159.01 | -$4.35 | 53% 2695-2376 (5071) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 41.3¢ | $118.61 | $116.21 | -$2.4 | 50% 28918-28732 (57650) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $10.94 | $10.76 | -$0.18 | 51% 6512-6276 (12788) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 61.5¢ | $6.15 | $5.9 | -$0.25 | 50% 26397-26018 (52415) |
Invested
$275.99
Value
$281.23
PnL
+$5.24
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$163.98
Value
$159.01
PnL
-$4.35
Record
53%
2695-2376 (5071)
Invested
$118.61
Value
$116.21
PnL
-$2.4
Record
50%
28918-28732 (57650)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$10.94
Value
$10.76
PnL
-$0.18
Record
51%
6512-6276 (12788)
Invested
$6.15
Value
$5.9
PnL
-$0.25
Record
50%
26397-26018 (52415)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.