Will Scarborough Athletic win on 2026-11-10?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 51¢ · $377 held · ends Nov 10

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$376.69

Combined PnL

-$2.36

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 50.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$247.21

Total Shares410

Combined PnL-$4.95

Yes2 traders

Total Value$129.49

Total Shares264

Combined PnL+$2.59

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 52¢	$204.59	$201.13	-$3.47	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$121.63	$124.16	+$2.53	25% 218-645 (863)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 52¢	$41.64	$40.59	-$1.05	31% 170-384 (554)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 55¢	$5.92	$5.49	-$0.43	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$5.27	$5.32	+$0.05	25% 218-637 (855)

Flaznorp

Invested

$204.59

Value

$201.13

PnL

-$3.47

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$121.63

Value

$124.16

PnL

+$2.53

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$41.64

Value

$40.59

PnL

-$1.05

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$5.92

Value

$5.49

PnL

-$0.43

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.27

Value

$5.32

PnL

+$0.05

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.