Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Morecambe FC vs. Hereford FC: O/U 3.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 0.5¢ · $296 held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 75%
$295.94
-$557.47
31.5¢ → 0.5¢
-98% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTimeCTR | Underavg 29¢ | $93.06 | $157.24 | +$64.18 | 26% 226-645 (871) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $57.08 | $96.45 | +$39.37 | 25% 224-665 (889) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $11.08 | $11.08 | -$0 | 31% 174-392 (566) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 31.9¢ | $673.7 | $10.58 | -$663.12 | 50% 1421-1422 (2843) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $8.81 | $8.81 | +$0 | 38% 209-339 (548) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 33.3¢ | $6.65 | $7 | +$0.35 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $2.52 | $4.26 | +$1.74 | 26% 226-653 (879) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $0.52 | $0.53 | +$0.02 | 51% 251-244 (495) |
Invested
$93.06
Value
$157.24
PnL
+$64.18
Record
26%
226-645 (871)
Invested
$57.08
Value
$96.45
PnL
+$39.37
Record
25%
224-665 (889)
Invested
$11.08
Value
$11.08
PnL
-$0
Record
31%
174-392 (566)
Invested
$673.7
Value
$10.58
PnL
-$663.12
Record
50%
1421-1422 (2843)
Invested
$8.81
Value
$8.81
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
209-339 (548)
Invested
$6.65
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.35
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$4.26
PnL
+$1.74
Record
26%
226-653 (879)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$0.52
Value
$0.53
PnL
+$0.02
Record
51%
251-244 (495)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.